Recent Changes in Myanmar & Neo Geopolitical Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region-Observer Research Foundation

Cosmetic changes in Myanmar might lead to unintended consequences as in Soviet Union
20 February 2013

Myanmar’s reforms are mostly ’cosmetic’ as the army still retains significant control over the country’s politics. However, the cosmetic changes can have unintended consequences, as witnessed in the case of Mikhail Gorbachev’s Glasnost & Perestroika in the erstwhile Soviet Union, said Bertil Lintner, author of many books on Myanmar.

Giving a talk on “Recent Changes in Myanmar & Neo Geopolitical Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region” at Observer Research Foundation on Tuesday (February 19, 2013), Lintner said people in Myanmar are enjoying new freedoms and recent years have seen the emergence of a civil society, all of which bodes well for the future of the country.

Chairing the event, Mr. K. Raghunath, former Foreign Secretary, noted that it was important to consider the changes in context with both the internal dynamics and external pressures which may have prompted them.

The recent changes in Myanmar have been made by the establishment to improve its relations with the United States and have emerged as a response to Chinese dominance over the last two decades, according to Lintner. Myanmar’s image in the West has perennially been that of a tyrannical regime. This culminated with the imposition of sanctions and a long period of isolation. It is precisely this image which the government in Myanmar is on course to rectify. But with no real power ceded by the military government, it is questionable as to what extent its promised reforms have managed to actually change the country’s turbulent political climate, Lintner said.

He said in the years that China itself was undergoing a period of political and economic reform, Beijing Reviewhad published an article in 1985 suggesting Beijing must engage countries such as Myanmar in order to have more outlets for its expanding trade network. And, during a period of major political upheaval and the violent repression that followed in 1988, the Burmese government signed an agreement with China which legalised cross-border trade and opened the flow of military aid into the country.

Over the years, Myanmar has deepened its relationship with China and North Korea. Since 2004, reports have emerged of North Korean tunnelling experts operating in Myanmar to build an extensive network of underground facilities. In 2008, a visit by a Burmese delegation to China and North Korea revealed that China has been training Burmese forces at a facility in Yunnan province, Lintner said.

Despite what was ostensibly a deep and mutually beneficent relationship, Lintner brought to light a ’secret’ dossier which was issued to select military personnel in 2004. The dossier suggests that Myanmar reduces its dealings with China and improves its relationship with the West. It identified key individuals who have proposed deeper US engagement with Myanmar and key issues to help mend the relationship with the United States such as assistance to locate US military soldiers who have been ’Missing in Action’ since the Second World War. Interestingly, Lintner also linked the ousting of former Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt in 2004 to the publishing of the dossier.

On the possibility of Western imposed sanctions prompting the shift in Burmese policy, Lintner said Myanmar continued to trade with its neighbours despite the sanctions. However, citing the aforementioned dossier, he believed that it was entirely possible that isolation from the West made China’s penetration into Myanmar easier. Looking at America’s ’Pivot to Asia’, seen by many as a measure to contain China’s rise, the only state which had a pervasive Chinese presence and a previously antagonistic position to the US, which has been approached by the United States has been Myanmar, noted Lintner.

On the question of the establishment’s capacity to deal with ethnic minorities, Lintner alluded to a comment made by Aung San during Myanmar’s independence struggle from Britain, insisting that any attempts at forming a unitary state would serve only to marginalise minority groups. Lintner argued that in order to accommodate the various ethnic minorities, they require a degree of political autonomy under a loose federation.

China’s reaction to the changes institutionalised by the Burmese government was one of surprise. Many reports have emerged of Chinese troops crossing the border into Myanmar as well as rumours that China is supplying the Kachin Independence Army with arms to bolster their ongoing insurrection against the Burmese establishment. While Mr. Lintner dismissed these claims, he suggested that China has been trading arms and offering logistical support to the United Wa State Army, the successor to the former Communist Party of Burma. He also stressed that several projects such as the China-Myanmar pipeline and hydro-electric power projects have been constructed in Myanmar and that China will seek to protect these investments.

Talking about China’s response to Myanmar diversifying its foreign policy, Lintner said that academic literature has surfaced in China to attempt to analyse what caused the shift in Myanmar’s policy. He also noted that during President Barack Obama’s visit to Myanmar in November last year, China increased security around the border to remind the Burmese of their proximity.

Lintner stressed that the Chinese will do what is necessary to protect their many investments in the country, but ruled out the possibility of a direct military engagement. Lintner is the author of many books on Burma, including Outrage: Burma’s Struggle for Democracy; Burma in Revolt: Opium and Insurgency Since 1948; Land of Jade: A Journey From India through Northern Burma to China; Bloodbrothers: Crime, Business and Politics in Asia; Merchants of Madness: the Methamphetamine Explosion in the Golden Triangle; Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma’s Struggle for Democracy.

Lintner, now based in Thailand, is currently Asia correspondent for the Swedish dailySvenska Dagbladet. 

audio Lintner

KACHIN WAR: Government troops from 29 Infantry Battalion attacked KIA 10 Battalion at Sawlaw and Chinbwe towns-CHINA TROOPS VIDEO

Khon Ja
Fighting resumed since this morning 23 February 2013 at 8:00 AM as Government troops from 29 Infantry Battalion attacked KIA 10 Battalion at Sawlaw and Chinbwe towns, northern Kachin state.

ယေန႕နံနက္ (၂၃ ေဖေဖၚ၀ါရီ ၂၀၁၃)? နံနက္ ၈း၀၀ မွ စ၍ ခလ၇ ၂၉ ႏွင့္ ကခ်င္လႊတ္ေျမာက္ေရးတပ္မေတာ္ တပ္မ ၁၀ တို႕ ေဆာ႕ေလာ္ျမိဳ႕ႏွင့္ ခ်ီေဖြျမိဳ႕ ၾကား၊ ကခ်င္ျပည္နယ္တြင္ တိုက္ပြဲ ျပန္လည္ျဖစ္ပြားသည္။

Dai hpawt 8:00am ten daram kaw nna Jihpwi the Sawlaw lapran KIA dap dung 10 ni nga ai shara hpe M dap ni sa htim gap ai kaw nna majan byin nga. M dap HkLY 29 dap ni rai na re.

Burma Army attacks the Shan State Progress Party / Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), a ceasefire group: yesterday,  east of Mongkao, Tangyan township; and today,

Myanmar To Talk Peace with Kachin in China for Early March

Chinese Army units undergoing intense training near the border with Myanmar-Burma-video

The training has been taking place in the hills of Yunnan Province. It borders Kachin State in northern Myanmar, where a civil war between an ethnic Kachin rebel army and the Burmese Army has been unfolding. The fighting intensified in late December, and Chinese officials and news organizations reported that shells had landed in China and that Kachin refugees had begun living in hotels and the homes of family and friends in Yunnan.

Last month, the Myanmar government announced a cease-fire with the rebels of the Kachin Independence Army in order to hold peace talks, but foreigners in the area reported continuing attacks by the Burmese Army in the days after. One Chinese news report on Friday said there had been “no significant improvement” in the peace talks.

The goal of the military training in Yunnan was to ensure that the Chinese army units can “fight a battle, and be victorious in battle,” according to a report on Thursday by Xinhua, the state news agency,


“ နိဳင္ငံေတာ္ သာသနာ ဘာသာ အတြက္ အေရးႀကီး ကိစၥ ” BY buddhagonyipage ဗုဒၶဂုဏ္ရည္သာသနာေစာင့္ေရွာက္ေရးအဖြဲ႕

အင္တာနက္တြင္ႀကည္ရႈ႕နားေထာင္ခြင့္ရေသာ အစၥလာမ္ဘာသာ ၀င္စကား ေႀကာက္စရာေကာင္း၍ ျမန္မာမြတ္ဆလင္ မ်ားကမသိတာလား တကယ္ဘဲဒီလိုႀကံစီလုပ္ေဆာင္မွာလား အာလံုးသတိထားဘို႕တင္ျပအပ္ပါသည္ ။

။ လူမ်ိဳးစံု ျမန္မာနိဳင္ငံသားတိုင္းသိသင့္လွပါသည္ ။ ရွယ္ျခင္းအသိေပးျခင္းျဖင့္မိမိအမိ်ဳးဘာသာအားေစာင့္ေရွာက္ေပးႀကပါ ။








အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕သည္ အၾကမ္းဖက္လႈပ္ရွားမႈမ်ားအတြက္ အီရန္ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးက အေရၿခံဳ လႈပ္ရွားေနေသာ အဖြဲ႕ျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း အေမရိကန္ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးမ်ားက ေတြ႕ရွိထား။ အၾကမ္းဖက္ ဆက္စပ္မႈ ရွိ NGO စာရင္းတြင္ စီအိုင္ေအ က သြင္းထားဆဲ။

By Thaung Krwe

စစ္ေတြ ၊ ၂၂ ေဖေဖာ္၀ါရီ ၂၀၁၃ ၊ Coral Arakan News ၊ [ သတင္းသံုးသပ္ခ်က္ ]

၀ီကီလိခ္ က ၂၀၁၀-ခုႏွစ္အတြင္ ဖြင့္ခ်လိုက္ေသာ အေမရိကန္သံရံုး သံႀကိဳးစာတစ္ေစာင္အရ အီရန္ လျခမ္းနီ အဖြဲ႕ (IRCS) သည္ အီရန္အစိုးရ၏ တင္းၾကပ္စြာခ်ဳပ္ကိုင္မႈကို ခံထားရၿပီး၊ ၾကက္ေျခနီ ႏွင့္ လျခမ္းနီအသင္းမ်ား၏ ၾကားေနေရးမူ၀ါဒကို ေဖာက္ဖ်က္ကာ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရး၊ လက္နက္ပို႔ေဆာင္ေရး သူလွ်ိဳ ႏွင့္ အၾကမ္းဖက္လုပ္ရပ္မ်ားကို လုပ္ေဆာင္ေနခဲ့ေၾကာင္းေဖာ္ျပထားသည္သာမက၊ အၾကမ္းဖက္လႈပ္ရွားမႈမ်ား ႏွင့္ အဆက္အစပ္ရွိေသာ အဖြဲ႕အျဖစ္ အေမရိကန္ စီအိုင္ေအ က အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕ကို စာရင္းသြင္းထားေၾကာင္း ေတြ႕ရသည္။

အဆိုပါ သံႀကိဳးစာအရ ၂၀၀၈-ခုႏွစ္ ေအာက္တိုဘာလ (၁၅) ရက္ေန႔ ႏွင့္ (၂၀) ရက္ေန႔တို႔တြင္ ႏိုင္ငံတကာအရံရဲအရာရွိ (IRPO officer) တစ္ဦးအား အီရန္အဆင့္ျမင့္အရာရွိႀကီးတစ္ဦးက အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕၏ သူလွ်ိဳ၊ အၾကမ္းဖက္ လုပ္ေဆာင္မႈမ်ား၊ လက္နက္ပို႔ေဆာင္မႈမ်ားကို လုပ္ေဆာင္ခဲ့မႈမ်ားကို ထုတ္ေဖာ္ေျပာၾကားခဲ့သည္ ဟု ေဖာ္ျပထားသည္။ ထို ထုတ္ေဖာ္ေျပာၾကားသူ ႏွင့္ ၄င္း၏စကားမ်ားကို ယံုၾကည္စိတ္ခ်ႏိုင္သည္ ဟု အေမရိကန္ သံအရာရွိမ်ားက ယူဆၾကသည္။

လက္လႏြန္မွ ဟစ္ဇဘိုလာအၾကမ္းဖက္သမားမ်ား ႏွင့္ အစၥေရးတို႔ ၂၀၀၆-ခုႏွစ္ ပဋိပကၡျဖစ္ေနစဥ္ကာလအတြင္း အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအသင္းမွ လက္ဘႏြန္သို႔ ေဆးပစၥည္းမ်ားပို႔မည့္ေလယာဥ္တြင္ ေဆးအေထာက္အကူပစၥည္းမ်ား မတင္မီကပင္ ေလယာဥ္စီး၀က္စာ ဒံုးက်ည္မ်ား အျပည့္တင္ထားသည္ကို အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအသင္း ၀န္ထမ္းမ်ား (IRC staff) မ်က္စိႏွင့္ တပ္အပ္ ျမင္ခဲ့ရေၾကာင္း ၄င္းကဆိုသည္။

ၾကက္ေျခနီမူ၀ါဒမ်ားအရ အီရန္အစိုးရ မွ ကင္းလြတ္စြာရပ္တည္ရမည့္ အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕သည္ အမွန္တကယ္အားျဖင့္ အီရန္ ေတာ္လွန္ေရး အေစာင့္တပ္ဖြဲ႕ (Iranian Revolutionary Guard) ေခၚ IRG အဖြဲ႕၀င္ ေအးဂ်င့္မ်ားကို ၾကက္ေျခနီအေရၿခံဳေပးကာ ႏိုင္ငံေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားမ်ားသို႔ ေစလႊတ္ေပးခဲ့ေၾကာင္း အဆိုပါသတင္းရင္းျမစ္က အေမရိကန္ သံတမန္မ်ားအား ထုတ္ေဖာ္ သတင္းေပးခဲ့သည္။

အီရန္ၾကက္ေျခနီအဖြဲ႕ ကမူ အဆိုပါ စြပ္စြဲမႈမ်ားကို ခါးခါးသီးသီး ျငင္းဆိုသည္။

ဟစ္ဇဘိုလာ ေျပာက္က်ားမ်ားအား အကူအညီေပးရန္အတြက္ အီရန္ ေတာ္လွန္ေရး အေစာင့္တပ္ဖြဲ႕ ၏ လက္ေရြးစင္ အဆင့္ျမင့္ ေအးဂ်င့္မ်ားျဖစ္ၾကေသာ al-Quds တပ္ဖြဲ႕၀င္မ်ားအား လွ်ိဳ႕၀ွက္ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးအရာရွိမ်ား ႏွင့္ အထူးအရာရွိ မ်ားအျဖစ္ လက္ဘႏြန္သို႔ ပို႔ေပးရာတြင္ အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕ ၀န္ထမ္းမ်ားအျဖစ္ေပးပို႔ခဲ့ေၾကာင္း လက္နက္မ်ားကိုလည္း ေပးပို႔ခဲ့ေၾကာင္း သတင္းရင္းျမစ္က ဤကဲ့သို႔ေျပာၾကားသည္။

“လက္ဘႏြန္ကို ပို႔လိုက္တဲ့ အီရန္လျခမ္းနီ၀န္ထမ္းစစ္စစ္ဆိုလို႔ ဆရာ၀န္နဲ႔ ဒရိုင္ဘာပဲပါတယ္။ ေဆး၀ါးအေထာက္အပံ့ေတြ ပို႔ေတြဆိုတာကလည္း လက္နက္ေတြကို (သို၀ွက္ၿပီး) ပို႔ရတာလြယ္ကူေအာင္ လုပ္တဲ့သေဘာျဖစ္ပါတယ္” ဟု ၄င္းက ဆိုသည္။

မိုဟာမက္အမာဒီနီဂ်က္ ၂၀၀၅-ခုႏွစ္တြင္ အီရန္သမၼတအျဖစ္ အေရြးခ်ယ္ခံရၿပီးေနာက္ အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕၏ လက္ေဟာင္း၀န္ထမ္းမ်ားကို ထုတ္ပစ္လိုက္ကာ၊ ယခုအခါ အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအသင္းကို အီရန္ေတာ္လွန္ေရး အေစာင့္ တပ္ဖြဲ႕၏ အေထာက္အကူျပဳအဖြဲ႕ အျဖစ္သာ သေဘာထားသည္ (“now considered the IRC an agent of the IRG”) ဟု အဆိုပါ အေမရိကန္သံရံုး သံႀကိဳးစာတြင္ ေဖာ္ျပထားသည္။

၄င္းအေရြးေကာက္ခံရၿပီးေနာက္ သမၼတ အမာဒီနီဂ်က္သည္ အဖြဲ႕၀င္ (၁၆)ဦးပါ IRCS ၏ ဦးစီးေကာ္မတီ၀င္မ်ားအနက္ ေလးေယာက္ကို ခန္႔အပ္ပိုင္ခြင့္ရွိလာသည္။ ၄င္းခန္႔အပ္လိုက္ေသာ ထိုေလးဦးက တစ္ဖန္ လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕၏ အႀကီးအကဲကို ႏႈတ္ထြက္ေပးရန္ ေတာင္းဆိုရာ ထိုစဥ္က အႀကီးအကဲျဖစ္သူ Dr. Ahmad Ali Noorbala ႏႈတ္ထြက္ေပးခဲ့ရသည္။

ထို႔ေနာက္ပိုင္း ခန္႔အပ္ေသာ ဦးစီးေကာ္မတီ၀င္မ်ားမွာ အီရန္ေတာ္လွန္ေရးအေစာင့္တပ္ဖြဲ႕၀င္မ်ား (သို႔မဟုတ္) Ministry of Information and Security (MOIS) ေခၚ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရး၀န္ႀကီးဌာန ၏ အရာရွိမ်ားသာျဖစ္ၾကသည္ ဟု ဆိုသည္။

လူအား လက္နက္အားျဖင့္ သူပုန္မ်ားအား အီရန္လျခမ္းနီမ်ားက အကူအညီေပးသည့္အျပင္ လက္ဘႏြန္ေတာင္ပိုင္းရွိ အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕က စီမံခန္႔ခြဲေသာ ေဆးရံုတစ္ခုကိုလည္း ဟစ္ဇဘိုလာ ေျပာက္က်ားမ်ားလက္သို႔ လႊဲေျပာင္းေပးခဲ့ သည္ ဟု သတင္းရင္းျမစ္ကဆိုသည္။

အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအသင္းက ႀကီးၾကပ္ေသာ ေဆးေပးခန္းမ်ားမွာ ေရာဂါကုသေရးအတြက္သာမက စစ္လက္နက္ပစၥည္းမ်ား သိုေလွာင္ေရးဂိုေထာင္မ်ားအျဖစ္ပါ သံုးစြဲေလ့ရွိသည္ ဟု ဆိုသည္။

၁၉၈၀-၈၆ အီရန္-အီရတ္ စစ္ပြဲကာလအတြင္း အီရတ္ႏိုင္ငံအတြင္းသို႔ ၀င္ေရာက္ႏိုင္ရန္အတြက္လည္းေကာင္း၊ ၁၉၉၀ ျပည့္လြန္ႏွစ္မ်ားအတြင္း ေဘာ္လကန္ေဒသအတြင္းရွိ မူဆလင္ခြဲထြက္ေရသမားမ်ားကို အကူအညီေပး ႏိုင္ရန္အတြက္ လည္းေကာင္း၊ ၁၉၉၇-၂၀၀၀ ကာလမ်ားအတြင္း ယီမင္ ႏွင့္ ဘာရိန္းႏိုင္ငံမ်ားရွိ ရွီးယတ္ အတိုက္အခံမ်ားကို အကူအညီေပး ႏိုင္ရန္အတြက္လည္းေကာင္း အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕ (IRCS) အား အီရန္အစိုးရက အသံုးခ်ခဲ့သည္ဟု အဆိုပါ သတင္းရင္းျမစ္က ေျပာေၾကာင္း အေမရိကန္သံရံုးသံႀကိဳးစာတြင္ ေဖာ္ျပထားသည္။

al-Quds အရာရွိမ်ား အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕ (IRCS) ၀န္ထမ္းမ်ားအျဖစ္ခရီးသြားလာႏိုင္ေရးအတြက္ လက္မွတ္ေရးထိုးေပးရန္ သူ႕အား ခိုင္းေစျခင္းခံရဖူးေၾကာင္း၊ သူကအေၾကာက္အကန္ ျငင္းဆန္သည့္အတြက္ သူ႕အထက္က အရာရွိက လက္မွတ္ေရးထိုးေပးခဲ့သည္ ဟု ထို သတင္းရင္းျမစ္က ဆိုသည္။

အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕သည္ အၾကမ္းဖက္လႈပ္ရွားမႈမ်ား ႏွင့္ ဆက္စပ္ေသာ အန္ဂ်ီအို အဖြဲ႕အစည္းမ်ားအနက္ တစ္ခုအျဖစ္ အေမရိကန္ ဗဟိုေထာက္လွမ္းေရးဌာန (CIA) ၏ အစီရင္ခံစာတြင္ စာရင္းသြင္းမွတ္တမ္းတင္ထားဆဲျဖစ္သည္။

အီရန္လျခမ္းနီအဖြဲ႕က တန္-၃၀ ပမာဏရွိ အေထာက္အပံ့ပစၥည္းမ်ားကုိ ရခိုင္ျပည္နယ္ရွိ ဘဂၤါလီမူဆလင္ ဒုကၡသည္မ်ား သက္သက္ အတြက္ ရည္စူးကာ ၂၀၁၃-ခုႏွစ္ ဇြန္န၀ါရီ လအတြင္း က ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ ေနျပည္ေတာ္မွ တစ္ဆင့္ ေလေၾကာင္း ခရီးျဖင့္ ေပးပုိ႔ခဲ့သည္။ အဆိုပါ ပစၥည္းမ်ားကို စစ္ေဆးၿပီးမွ ကုလားမ်ားထံ ပို႔ေပးျခင္း ဟုတ္မဟုတ္ကို ျမန္မာအစိုးရက အမ်ားျပည္သူသိေအာင္ ထုတ္ျပန္ေၾကျငာခဲ့ျခင္း မရွိေပ။

ထိုမွ်သာမက အီရန္အာဏာပိုင္မ်ားသည္ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံတြင္ သံရံုးဖြင့္လွစ္ႏိုင္ရန္ ျမန္မာအစိုးရအား ကမ္းလွမ္းထားၿပီး ထို႔အတြက္ ျမန္မာ အစိုးရက စဥ္းစားေနသည္ ဟု ဆိုသည္။

(Coral Arakan News အတြက္ ေသာင္းၾကြယ္ ေရးသားသည္။)


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