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Think-tank report reveals 95.72 mln Bangladeshis under threat of climate-change induced displacemen

December 5, 2012


A new research has revealed that climate-change induced migration in Bangladesh may reach 95.72 million by 2040.

ရာသီဥတုေဖာက္ျပန္မႈေၾကာင့္ ဘဂၤလာေဒ့ရွ္ႏိုင္ငံသား (၉၅)သန္းေက်ာ္ ေရႊ႕ေျပာင္းရဖြယ္ရွိဘဂၤလာေဒ့ရွ္အေျခစိုက္ သုေတသနအဖြဲ႔အစည္းတစ္ခုက ထုတ္ျပန္တဲ့ အစီရင္ခံစာ တစ္ေစာင္ရဲ႕ အဆိုအရ ၂၀၄၀-ခုႏွစ္ အေရာက္မွာ ရာသီဥတု ေဖာက္ျပန္မႈေၾကာင့္ ေနရာေရႊ႕ေျပာင္းေပးရတဲ႔ လူအေရအတြက္ဟာ ဘဂၤလာေဒ့ရွ္ တစ္ႏိုင္ငံတည္းမွာကို လူသန္းေပါင္း (၉၅) သန္း ရွိလိမ့္မယ္လို႔ ဆိုပါတယ္။ေဆာင္းပါးအျပည့္အစံုကို ဖတ္ရႈဖို႔အတြက္ ေအာက္ပါ လင့္ခ္ ကို ႏွိပ္ပါ။

Leading local think-tank Unnayan Onneshan has prepared the report titled “The Tempest of Exodus: The Case of Climate Change- induced Displacement in Bangladesh and International Negotiations” under its Durban to Doha Technical Paper Series as the countries negotiate in Doha on the actions to be taken to combat climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Referring to increased number of displacement over the years, the Unnayan Onneshan alerts that flood may displace 5.25 million, 11.02 million, 23.16 million people by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively, based upon the historical trend.

Likewise, it said if radical actions are not taken, 1.58 million, 6.46 million and 26.39 million people may be displaced due to cyclone by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

In addition, if the business as usual situation continues unabated, riverbank erosion could displace 11.62 million, 26.15 million and 40.67 million by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively, said a concise version of the report obtained by Xinhua on Thursday.

Similarly, it said 3.92 million, 4.64 million and 5.5 million may be displaced due to drought by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

Taking into account of flood, cyclone, river bank erosion and drought under the business as usual scenario, the leading research organization estimates that “climate change induced migration in Bangladesh may reach 22.37 million, 48.28 million and 95.72 million by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.”

Analyzing existing data, the Unnayan Onneshan has found that on average, 2.5 million people are displaced permanently by every major flood.

Pointing to the inaction of the international negotiation, it said “The upsurge in migration, caused by environmental degradation and climate change, is unprecedented, yet the world is still mired only in’expression of intent’in the climate change negotiations, at the cost of the people’s lives and livelihood, particularly the poor and the marginalized, who have no contribution in changing the climate.”

Local experts said plight of millions of people in Bangladesh, the world’s largest delta country, mount even from a trifling hit of natural calamities augmented by global climate change due to the country’s feeble resilience capacity.

As part of the effects of climate change, A new World Bank report published on Nov. 18 said the sea level would rise by up to 3 feet in Bangladesh where water scarcity and falling crop yield exacerbate hunger and poverty.

The report titled “Turn Down the Heat” said that all nations would suffer the effects of a warmer world, but it is the world’s poorest countries that will be hit hardest by food shortages, rising sea levels, cyclones and drought.

It said some of the most highly vulnerable cities are located in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico and Venezuela.

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