An incursion by Myanmar’s army into northeastern Shan State has raised fears of more clashes with ethnic minority rebels that could exacerbate a refugee crisis at its border with economic and political ally China.
Some analysts are predicting a protracted conflict will be ignited in the region, which could anger Beijing and derail plans for army-ruled Myanmar’s first election in nearly two decades.
WHY HAVE MYANMAR TROOPS BEEN DEPLOYED IN SHAN STATE?
The Myanmar regime wants ethnic minorities to take part in the election and wants to recruit their fighters for an army-run border patrol force. The offensive could be an effort by Yangon to force the groups into submission.
The aim, analysts say, is to disarm and neutralise the insurgents, allowing the army to establish control over the rebellious region for the first time in its nearly five-decade rule.
However, the real target of the military is likely to be the United Wa State Army, a powerful force involved in the illicit drugs trade.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED AND WHO IS INVOLVED?
Myanmar’s armed forces entered the Kokang area and last week broke a 20-year ceasefire with rebels in the region when it overwhelmed the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), widely seen as the weakest of the area’s factions.
The junta kept silent about the incursion for several days and announced via state media that the clashes occurred after troops were attacked by rebels holding 39 policemen hostage.
A recently formed ethnic minority alliance known as the Myanmar Peace and Democracy Front (MPDF) has called for dialogue and has issued statements to the regime, and to Beijing, urging an end to hostilities.
The alliance groups the MNDAA, the Kachin Independence Organisation and the United Wa State Party, the ethnic Wa armed faction’s political wing. The groups are aware that a joint effort is necessary to counter the army. continue
WHY HAVE MYANMAR TROOPS BEEN DEPLOYED IN SHAN STATE?
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